Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

Rising temperature from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production. Sustainable wheat production a challenge due to and variability, which ultimately serious threat food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments were conducted during seasons 2013–2014 2014–2015 semi-arid (Faisalabad) arid (Layyah) regions Punjab-Pakistan. Three spring genotypes evaluated under eleven sowing dates 16 October March, with an interval 14–16 days two regions. Data model calibration evaluation collected following standard procedures protocols. The grain yield future scenarios was simulated by using well-calibrated CERES-wheat included DSSAT v4.7. Future (2051–2100) baseline (1980–2015) climatic data 29 global circulation models (GCMs) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. These GCMs distributed among five quadrants conditions (Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Cool/Dry, Cool/Wet, Middle) stretched distribution approach based on rainfall change. maximum ten predicted chances Middle second half century (2051–2100). average season region would increase 3.52 °C 3.84 °C, respectively, RCP 8.5 scenario half-century. reduced 23.5% 35.45% (scenario). Mean seasonal (MST) ranged 27.3 while mean heading maturity (MTHM) stage varying between 12.9 30.4 °C. Coefficients determination (R2) morphology parameters highly significant, range 0.84–0.96. Impacts sown 15 March found be as severe exterminate before heading. spikes spikelets not formed higher than 25.5 In nutshell, elevated (3–4 °C) till end-century can reduce about 30% findings are crucial growers especially policymakers decide sustainable region.